I penned a post for Fangraphs.com yesterday on the impact of trading ace pitchers on attendance and winning percentage. According to my research, teams can fall into four different categories after trading their best pitcher:
- Attendance can go down and winning percentage can go down
- Attendance can go down and winning percentage can go up
- Attendance can go up and winning percentage can go down
- Attendance can go up and winning percentage can go up
While common thought is most teams would fall into the first category after trading an all-star pitcher, after researching 12 trades over the last 37 years, I found that wasn’t as prevalent as I initially thought.
Included in my research is also the Scott Kazmir trade. While Kazmir wasn’t an ace when he was shipped to the Angels, the Rays definitely saw an attendance and winning percentage change after the trade.
Check my article on Fangraphs to see how different teams did in the seats and in the win column and where I predict the Rays will be if they trade David Price.
Looking at Attendance when Aces are Dealt – Fangraphs.com